With every presidential election comes a shift in political power and public policy. There are also other ramifications that extend to the economy, legislation, and even the real estate market. In fact, whoever takes the presidency in November will inevitably make an impact on U.S. home values. So the looking question exists, with the Trump vs. Clinton debate, what will happen to the U.S Real Estate Market?
In a recent Zillow survey, over 100 housing experts weigh in on who would make the real estate market healthier. Regardless of who becomes president, no one saw the imminent doom of the American real estate market, yet the general consensus is that a Trump presidency would be more harmful than a Clinton one.
Why are they dumping Trump?
Speculators hate uncertainty, and unfortunately, Trump brings in a lot of it.
According to The Fiscal Times, economists are worried about Trump’s “lack of experience, inconsistency, and unpredictability.” They are also worried that though his conservative policies would boost construction spending, they would negatively affect trade and immigration which could hurt new the home construction industry. For example, the ongoing restrictions on Mexican-born construction workers have already decimated the work supply from Mexico, causing home builders to spend more on labor. Trump’s even stricter immigration policies would strangle this conduit of labor and drive up labor costs even further, dampening new home construction.
Why is Clinton favored?
In short, her experience and predictability are her main strengths. Aaron Terrazas, one of Zillow’s senior economists, explains that Clinton wins this survey because “… forecasters like certainty and dislike uncertainty,” and that Clinton’s presidency would be a “continuation of current policies” so there won’t be as many changes if she takes office.
What is the current situation in the United States?
Since the housing crash of December 2008, the U.S. real estate market has recovered significantly. House prices have gone up a third since those dark days, bringing homeowners equity and a renewed sense of confidence.
The shortage of housing inventory combined with a healthier economy that has produced more qualified buyers has increased demand for real estate, which will cause prices to grow 4% by December of this year. With more Americans holding onto jobs and wages increasing, this season of buyer demand is likely to remain as long as the economy holds up.
The rental market presents challenges that Trump and Clinton will need to face head-on. Since the housing crash of 2008, more people have been renting, causing demand to increase and unfortunately, monthly rents have increased significantly due to it. According to The Atlantic’s Gillian White, more people are moving into costly rental units and staying instead of making the traditional transition to home ownership. Too many shattered credit scores make it difficult to pre-qualify for loans are significant factors as to why these renters remain renters.
How does Clinton’s Democratic policy address the real estate issues in the United States?
Hillary Clinton would follow the Democratic Party’s Platform to sort out the current real estate issues. To alleviate the rental situations, Clinton wants to increase the number of cheaper rental units by making more incentives to build and taking away obstacles that stop the construction of affordable housing. She also wants to send more funds to the National Housing Trust Fund and Section 8.
To address the situation for home buyers, Clinton wants to extend benefits to first-time home buyers and to assist people with bad credit to qualify for home ownership. She intends to strengthen the Fair Housing act, implement credit score reform, and educate people on money management to help them avoid foreclosure. Her scope is to help bring more buyers to the market who traditionally would not become homeowners.
How does Trump intend to address the U.S. real estate situation?
Following the usual conservative approaches to economics, Trump wants the government to be more hands-off with everything and let the market determine who qualifies for loans. He wants less federal involvement with mortgage lending, which makes lenders more autonomous on who they pre-qualify. Trump also wants to downsize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, giving them less of a reach into the real estate market, and intends to limit FHA mortgages to first-time home buyers and low-income buyers. However, in spite of decreasing government assistance to those programs, he wants to uphold the use of housing vouchers for the elderly and low-income households.
Who would benefit from each potential presidency?
If Trump wins, the lowered home values will make housing more affordable, but qualifying for a home would be more dependent on the decisions of lenders, as the government will be more hands-off. A Clinton presidency would keep home values up, making the situation good for sellers. Also, though prices would be higher, a wider pool of non-traditional buyers would be able to qualify for home ownership.
Renters will likely still be facing a shortage of affordable units for some time, though the Democratic Platform does appear to be more hands-on in solving the problem. Republican Policy does, however, intend to keep Section 8 around to help the elderly and low-income tenants stay housed.